Gregor.us - Latest Comments

Re: Coal Jobs and the Power of a False Premise

I'll tellya whut — Wed, 10 Jan 2018 08:13:23 -0000

Yeah, because "clean coal" is a fucking fable. It doesn't exist.

Re: Not the Road Ahead

gregor.us — Tue, 26 Dec 2017 18:31:37 -0000

"Your Uber Car Creates Congestion. Should You Pay a Fee to Ride?"
https://www.nytimes.com/201...

Re: The Clock Ticks Down on Gas Powered Cars

Jason Fligger — Fri, 03 Nov 2017 16:57:39 -0000

I recognized that clock right away. It is from the guardian building in Detroit!

Re: The Last Oil Cycle is Now Behind Us

gregor.us — Mon, 02 Oct 2017 13:14:59 -0000

Typically, the way large systems are transformed is not through direct substitution but through a new branching of industry, as the system moves forward through time. Ergo, it's difficult to quantify replacement--and also difficult to define replacement. Rather, it's the long process of turning over a global fleet of ICE vehicles through the accumulation of each, individual purchasing decision of a new unit, on a micro level.

More broadly, it's useful to remember that without forward growth and development in the economy, it becomes exceedingly difficult to turn fleets of any kind of infrastructure over. That said, retirements of existing fleets of infrastructure certainly can allow for turnover even in systems that aren't growing. The US powergrid is a good example of this particular pathway: the coal fleet really did reach the terminus of its lifecycle just as wind and solar power costs came down into the economic/affordable window. Accordingly, even though electricity demand in the US has been flat for a decade at 4000 TWh per year, coal's inevitable decline has made way for new wind, new solar, and new natural gas.

For everyone following this current transition in the auto sector specifically, I recommend watching the most basic metric: the slowing and then the flattening or even decline of new ICE vehicle sales, as EV sales growth bolts higher. As I've pointed out, we are already there in the US: ICE sales growth has peaked and EV sales growth is very strong.

Re: The Last Oil Cycle is Now Behind Us

mushalik — Mon, 02 Oct 2017 09:12:19 -0000

I would like to see the numbers showing how many EVs have actually REPLACED how many ICE cars. How about diesel, jet fuel? There are many other factors reducing demand growth: ageing population in OECD countries, in China pollution in cities, low wages growth in many countries, high debt incurred during the high oil price period, budget deficits etc

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

stevenjb1 — Wed, 09 Aug 2017 21:27:02 -0000

Heat pumps and electric cars fueled by nuclear power and renewable energy coupled with storage... sounds like a plan.

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

bobwyman — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 23:30:47 -0000

Oil is one of the most expensive heating fuels as well as the dirtiest. If states like New York are to meet their goal of reducing carbon emissions 80% by 2050, they must ensure that most oil burners are replaced by electric heat pumps. A conversion to gas won't be enough to meet the goal.

Already, companies like Dandelion, the recent Google X spin-out, are moving to dramatically increase the rate of adoption of heat pumps. In future decades, we'll see the use of heating oil diminish as heat pumps join natural gas as the dominant heating technology.

Re: Peak Coal, They Said: Questions Persist about Fossil Fuel Scarcity, and the Economics of Natural Resource Extraction

stevenjb1 — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 22:19:12 -0000

The Age of Coal began when England ran out of trees to chop down and coal became cheaper than wood. The Age of Oil began when vast amounts of oil were discovered and oil became cheaper than coal, likewise with gas. It is unlikely that renewables such as wind and solar will ever become cheaper than fossil fuels without being heavily subsidized, due to their diffuse and intermittent nature, and the problem of scalability due to their requirements for large amounts of land (diffuseness) and storage (intermittency). The Age of Nuclear will arrive when nuclear power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels.

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

stevenjb1 — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 21:35:33 -0000

Electric Vehicles instead of ICE automobiles (internal combustion engine or gas vehicles).

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

John Brown — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 21:24:58 -0000

A great article which shows how corrupt the Paris accords were. The USA will likely be the only country that actually achieves the targets and now that Trump has torn up that piece of corruption we won't be giving tens of billions to corrupt criminal regimes. Meanwhile you have to ask yourself why oil is over $30 a gallon. The glut remains even as Saudi Arabia has cut its own production back further and further which only puts huge capacity on standby and keeps oil artificially high spurring more production and capacity in places like the USA where natural gas and re-newables are reducing the demand for oil. However, I'm not complaining at the collusion that keeps oil prices around $50. It just guarantees more U.S. production, more natural gas, more solar and more wind.

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

gregor.us — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 15:08:11 -0000

Texas is amazing. Here is the percentage of Texas electricity use that was provided by combined wind and solar, in the first five months of this year:

20.83% May
26.25% April
25.60% March
22.08% February
19.02% January

Of course, the majority of that share is Wind power.

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

Ex Democrat — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 14:10:07 -0000

Renewable energy has grown enormously. This last weekend I went to Lubbock, Texas, from Dallas by way of Abilene. I hadn't been that way for a decade. There were wind turbines in evidence from the highway back in 2007, but now the trip is a renewable energy wonder to behold: there are literally hundreds of giant wind turbines, sometimes for many miles on end, taking up multiple whole horizon vistas.

See:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news...

Re: US Fossil Fuel Consumption Has Peaked, and Will Never Return

tedshepherd — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 10:56:48 -0000

What is "EV"? How did the author decide not to explain that expression with his first use of it? Way to go, making readers feel ignorant or thinking the writer is aloof.

Re: Trump Pulls a Crazy Ivan on US Energy and the EPA

Instagirl — Wed, 12 Jul 2017 17:01:34 -0000

Politics sometimes acts like offended kids..

Re: Building Blocks to a World of Flat Emissions

gregor.us — Tue, 21 Mar 2017 17:43:24 -0000

You may be right. Just stepping back a bit, there is still a long tail of oil-based heating apparatus, primarily in the US Northeast–though, these systems have been steadily replaced–especially in municipal and institutional buildings. But looking ahead, what would make heat pumps more competitive and would help them to scale would be a transformation of building materials especially in the domestic market, such that insulation standards were prodded to higher levels.

Re: Building Blocks to a World of Flat Emissions

bobwyman — Sun, 19 Mar 2017 19:41:17 -0000

In addition to a transition to electric vehicles, we'll also see a transition from furnaces and boilers to heat pumps. Before 2050, combustion-free heat pumps will become the dominant technology for space and water heating in buildings.
These two "Beneficial Electrification" transitions will result in a doubling of electrical demand, cheaper energy and a dramatic decrease in emissions of CO2 and pollution.

Re: Not the Road Ahead

Bryan Long — Wed, 01 Mar 2017 11:56:16 -0000

I agree the full transition away from personal will be slower than some expect, for various reasons. Even with autonomous vehicles, it will take quite a while before the price of a ride is less than the marginal cost of using a vehicle that is already owned. So the impact will be likely first be seen in a drop in new car sales. Young people in urban areas will see much less reason to buy their first car. Geriatrics will give up their keys earlier (what a relief to the children of older adults). While city buses and subway rides will fall, express buses and commuter rail will likely see an increase in use as longer distance commuters will know they can get around their destination city or run errands on the way home without their car. Eventually, when there is a critical mass of autonomous vehicles, and the cost is low enough, more car owners will leave their SUV or sports car in the garage and use ride services for even mundane trips to the grocery. The personal vehicle will be for leisure excursions.

Re: Coal Jobs and the Power of a False Premise

exdent11 — Tue, 28 Feb 2017 07:31:59 -0000

Clean coal cannot compete with natural gas and solar/ wind anywhere. Solar and wind cost drop at least 7-10 % per year and will soon be less expensive than natural gas in most of U.S.

Our investments should center on two thing:
1 Developing inexpensive electrical storage.
2. Develop CO2 free natural gas emissions by converting the CO2 into useful by-products.

Re: Coal Jobs and the Power of a False Premise

spec9 — Tue, 21 Feb 2017 14:52:52 -0000

Will this story ever get through the skulls of people in coal country? Coad is dead. Dead, dead, dead. Trying to bring back coal is like trying to bring back whale oil, buggy whips, and leaded gasoline.

Re: Oroville Dam and the Infrastructure Policy Swirl

MCE — Thu, 16 Feb 2017 08:06:51 -0000

I agree "as it has in the past" relating to the cyclical historical reality - the problem I feel like I'm seeing is "certainty" of different this time mentality.
Re infrastructure projects - would love for repatriating US$ go straight to this -
Very straight line, more then enough demand - this would then fall under your thoughts on which projects get prioritized - but from an available funds it would change the math possibly - not taking on bonds instead outright pay for it (although wall street would love to change that into a securitized event(s) I'm sure)

Re: Oroville Dam and the Infrastructure Policy Swirl

gregor.us — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 23:12:55 -0000

Yes, you could make a new argument that Oroville is not attractive for P3 because of its vulnerability to California rainfall. But, if California emerges from its drought period--as it has in the past--then that argument loses its explanatory usefulness. The reason I thought Oroville was a good candidate to talk about infrastructure is that in my canvass of infra professionals over the past year, I concluded that these two classes of infra are important to think about. In other words, the infrastructure issue is fairly complicated, even after one sets aside the competing fiscal philosophies that often drive policy making. In a way, you could read me as predicting, generally, that any infra plan from the current administration will generally come down on one side: away from many needed projects, and will focus on the cash flow.

Re: Oroville Dam and the Infrastructure Policy Swirl

MCE — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 22:47:24 -0000

Gregor - following you for years and you are way more informed then I am -
Oroville seems to be a very expensive fix (prior and more so now) and the narrative is already how Trump won't do it right, but where is the conversation on how for the last (you pick) 4-8-12 years - nothing appears to have been done to properly maintain the integrity of the dam / spillway.
Wondering if this is an unintended consequence of the climate change argument - by that I mean, if you were convinced that there would be very little snow and wet weather in the future ie drought is the new normal - could the argument have been that the dam would never be full again - so why put money into maintaining a spillway system that we wont need anyway?

Re: The Big Pivot: Interest Rates and Emissions as Global Population Growth Hits a Turning Point

sinnycool — Thu, 15 Dec 2016 02:28:39 -0000

"the authors—who clearly understand this tipping point in population growth just ahead of us..."

Clearly the authors don't place any credibility in the 1972 Limits to Growth study with it's confirming trend update at thirty years and more recently in 2014 by the MIT.

That study shows the same reducing population growth trend as detailed by the authors down to around 2020 at which point it turns very sharply back up and is overtaken by an even more rapidly accelerating death rate.

Here is a link to the 12014 update (pdf warning):

http://sustainable.unimelb....

Re: The Big Pivot: Interest Rates and Emissions as Global Population Growth Hits a Turning Point

Draco T Bastard — Sun, 11 Sep 2016 17:24:51 -0000

Low to no interest rates and growth are the norm. The high interest
rates and high growth that we’ve had for the last couple of centuries is
an anomaly. We’re now heading back to the norm and, shortly after that,
we’ll be in de-growth as population declines.

Re: The Big Pivot: Interest Rates and Emissions as Global Population Growth Hits a Turning Point

François de Ryckel — Thu, 08 Sep 2016 05:48:30 -0000

What a timely article. One of the most relevant article I have read on the matter for a long time. Very well done!